Energy Policy Review: How Effective Was Denying the Keystone XL Pipeline Presidential Permit in Reducing Green House Gas Emissions from Canadian Oil Sands Crude?

The purpose of this paper is to review what effect denying the presidential permit required to allow a border crossing between Canada and the United States for the Keystone XL [KXL] Pipeline had on potential life-cycle greenhouse gas [GHG] emissions from the West Canada Sand Basin [WCSB] crude oil. The focus of the evaluation is on the potential GHG emissions predicted if the KXL Pipeline were constructed and operated versus potential GHG emissions for other transportation routes without the KXL Pipeline. Current and projected WCSB crude oil production rates and exports are also reviewed and compared to rates and projections at the time of the presidential permit review in 2013. By comparing and contrasting the GHG emissions from alternative modes of transportation and reviewing WCSB crude oil production rates and exports, the paper evaluated the intended and unintended consequences of the decision to prevent construction of the KXL Pipeline as it relates to GHG emissions and climate change. The results of the evaluation determined that pipeline transport produces the least amount of GHG emissions for transporting WCSB crude oil from Canada to the Gulf Coast. However, the difference between GHG emissions of the different modes of transportation is small. Additionally, the WCSB crude oil production rates and exports to the U.S. continued to increase in the near term despite lower costs per barrel of crude oil and the denial of the KXL Pipeline border crossing permit.